What next as ODM nears collapse?

IT does not require enormous political adeptness to conclude that all is not well within the ODM-Kenya camp. The whole movement is collapsing right in front of our own eyes. Apparently, the wedge dividing the Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka camps is deeper than they would like to admit. Seemingly, the recent London-commotion has just sealed the fate of what could have been an indomitable challenger to the present regime come election time.

As a result, we are looking at this same government that gave us the Arturs brother, the Anglo-Leasing, and Mt Kenya Mafia retaining the State House for a long time to come. Because, there can never be a weaker political opponent for President Mwai Kibaki’s government than the post-London ODM-K. And, both sides within the ODM-K cohorts realize that their short marriage is a done deal.

While ODM-K government was expected to give Kenya a new page and a clean slate to start afresh, those hopes are gone now because between London and Nairobi the party lost its innocence and left all the declared presidential contenders permanently bruised and taking down their party in the process and despite constant denial to the fact, it is evident that there is no trust between Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka. Subsequently, citizen’s hopes have been dashed. And, we have been reduced to continue depending on John Michuki for our national security and Martha Karua for justice —for a long time to come.

Street protests could return to Nairobi and other streets as people vent their anger and frustrations. Expect Minister Charity Ngilu to throw more tantrums and feats that will establish a blame-the-government-syndrome of betrayal and exposé. Only this time she will be performing outside Afya House. Kibaki’s government will never even pretend to listen let alone take action. I do not believe that an ODM-K government would have resisted stealing from citizens, but the honeymoon period in early 2008 would have given Kenyans a little break. Enough a break that would have gently ushered in another mega-corrupt deal twice the size of Anglo Leasing.

A short relief would have ensured. That is, before the confident ODM-K government replaced ministries’ lucrative offices with tribes that “appropriately” reflects the leading tribe. This is certain to happen if you only knew of the checkered histories of the ODM-K leading lights. It is very likely that they are worse that our current government. After-all, they all come from the same old school that was Moi’s regime of the 1990s.

The public should be spared Dr. Alfred Mutua’s and the government propaganda that Kenya has been turned around economically. The truth is that the whole world’s economy has inched up. Whether you look at the New York Stock Exchange or the Nikkei Average, generally, all countries in the world improved in the last four years. Therefore, Kenya was expected to improve and for Dr. Mutua to credit this to the Kibaki government is just too much of an over-extension. In the last four years, Kenya would have prospered whether it was led by Mwai Kibaki or by the Mombasa Mayor Sharriff Shekue who neither attended Makerere or Alliance.

But, the impending fall of ODM-K is very unfortunate. At the very least, a new government would have put a superficial show of implementing corrective measures that may have provided the mwananchi with a temporary relief and hope. Imagine a government without annoying abuses from security minister who openly attack media houses and literary burns up newspaper offices and TV stations for gratification. Imagine an angry First-Lady who won’t be attacking journalists and neighbors in the middle of the night. Imagine life without Minister Martha Karua’s constant bullying of the opposition?

In sum, the slow collapse of the ODM-K is but a clear sign of things to come. I say this even with the full knowledge that the party was not going to deliver any thing different from the current government. Maybe the new president might have instituted some corrective measures of one tribe’s influx in certain departments. Because it can never be a twist of fate that four key ministries of justice, state security, finance, and education be all manned from top to bottom by one group of closely related tribes.

Do not expect a new constitution because what they have is good enough and provide enough power to the holders of the State House. Expect a little trouble from ODM-K when they feign surprise once they lose the general elections at the end of the year. Michuki will threaten to burn anybody who will not support the newly elected government, remember the rattled-snake example he gave during the Standard Newspapers punishment? We, the rest of peaceful citizens will continue to put our tails in the back and stay very low.

Source: DISPATCH FROM WASHINGTON
Author: Abdillahi Alawy, PhD
Aalawy@gmail.com