Tricky VP pick for Kibaki in 2007

In the United States, both the Presidecency and the Vice Presidency are elective offices. The presidential candidates and their respective running-mates are elected together under one party ticket. That is why upon the incapacitation of the sitting President, the Vice President automatically assumes the Presidency. In countries where the Vice Presidents are also elected, like in Nigeria and the United States, the person is not serving at the pleasure of the President but that of the electorate. He or she cannot be fired or demoted like in the case of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda to name but three countries.

In Kenya we don’t have such a constitutional arrangement. Respective political parties’ Presidential candidates go to the polls on their own and it is up to the winning candidates, the incoming President, to appoint a Vice President amongst other appointments they have to make. It is believed that the Orange Democratic Movement Kenya plans to have their Presidential candidate face the electorate with a publicly known running-mate to help the party’s ticket.

Although there is nothing wrong with such an arrangement, but it must not be forgotten that the “arrangement” will not be constitutionally binding. Let us say that ODM-K torch bearer wins the Presidency, whoever that might be will not be constitutionally compelled to appoint his or her “running-mate” as the Vice President. When it comes to President Mwai Kibaki it is all unpredictable. Although the incumbent was elected to the office with an implied running-mate, late Michael Kijana Wamalwa (who became his first Vice President), chances are that Kibaki will seek re-election without having the obligation to name one prior to the polls. In 2002, the political landscape was completely different and that had to be done, the same way, ODM Kenya currently finds itself in.

At that time there were crucial political alignments and re-alignments where Kibaki-led Democratic Party joined hands with Wamalwa-led Ford Kenya and Charity Ngilu’s little known National Party of Kenya to form National Alliance Party of Kenya, or NAK. Kibaki had to give one of them (then known as big three) in order for the two to shelve their Presidential ambitions and the opposition needed to destroy the then out-going President Daniel arap Moi “Project Uhuru” and remove Kanu out of power in tandem. Then all of a sudden the aftermath of the Kanu National Delegates Conference brought the ‘Kanu rebels’ that quickly turned themselves into Liberal Democratic Party and joined NAK to form NARC.
With the 2007 General Elections, either before or after the election, there are several scenarios for the incumbent. There is one school of thought that believes that the unpredictable Kibaki might decide to face the General Election with his current Vice President Moody Awori and should he win, which is highly likely, he will let the Funyula MP continue as his number two for the rest of the second term. End of the story. Moody should always remember that his boss is unpredictable. If Kibaki were to name a running–mate then here are the two choices and one wild card. In order to continue to appease the Luhya community, Dr Mukhisa Kituyi would be an excellent choice.

Either through Awori or Kituyi, Kibaki badly needs the Luhya bloc in the absence of the Luo bloc which will not side with him this time around. The Trade and Industry Minister is known to be very ambitious and as others have time and again pointed he is over ambitious he is more than ready for the position. The Kimilili MP is in fact seeking NARC K national chairmanship post in a way positioning himself for the VP slot.
Politics is all about numbers and Luhya is a big number for any Presidential candidate. Ford Kenya national chairman Musikari Kombo has in fact missed the boat in this scenario. Kibaki also needs the greater Kalenjin communities’ vote that is up for grabs. In the last last Election, they overwhelmingly voted for Uhuru under direct orders from former President Moi. In this scenario the name that comes to mind is that of the Cherangani MP Kipruto arap Kirwa. The embattled Agriculture Minister has made no secret of his desire to be appointed and or named to the VP slot. He wants the second highest office in the land and he has made or still continues to make it known wherever he gets the chance. Although with no stellar curriculum vitae, Kirwa is known to have thick skin where he made his bones during the Kanu days when he was a thorn in Moi’s Government’s flesh.

The third scenario, and perhaps the wild card is the Matuga MP, Chirau Mwakwere. The move of appointing the Trasport Minister to the VP position will be an effort to appease not only the Miji Kenda community but the entire Coast people in particular and the country’s Muslim community in general. The Muslim community appease will also includes the entire North Eastern Province. Mwakwere who was recently appointed the Mikijenda community’s spokesperson is known to be very loyal to Kibaki. The former long serving diplomat has served the current government in three crucial cabinet dockets, namely Labour, Foreign Affairs and now Transport. He could be Kibaki’s surprise pick as his Vice President. Boldly speaking, my money is on Awori who shall remain Kibaki’s VP for the entire second term.