This past week saw the main ODM-K presidential rivals killing their party’s strong unity as fast as they had build it two years ago. The two most-visible party presidential contenders, Honorable Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka effectively mutilated ODM-K potential and left a leadership vacuum that will take a lot of sacrifice to fill. Perhaps that is why another candidate, albeit a less popular one, is re-emerging to claim the limelight. Through little fanfare, the media unveiled Hon. Najib Balala political manifesto this week.
Mr. Balala, a low key ODM-K presidential candidate from Kenya’s most disfranchised province has the least political capital, at the national level, promptly emerged from the tail-end to headlines. However, compared to the political giants he has to contest against, Balala may be quickly written off even before he begins to campaign for the presidency. But wait a minute! Before you wipe him off your political-scanner, analyze this. The fact is that his very standing as a minority candidate may as well be his biggest asset that will propel him to the ultimate prize. In fact, his well articulated political manifesto is maps out an excellent course. In his road-map, Balala clearly gives a glimpse into what he wants to incorporate into his leadership and the future looks well mapped for Kenya through the vision of this gentleman from Mombasa.
As specified in his proposal, Balala’s government will have a prime minister and four deputies to handle the most important cluster of ministries in a reformed and streamlined government. His manifesto draws a realistic picture of the country’s needs in all the important sectors and he ignites hope for all wananchi. With this week’s events, Balala may as well have curved a possible path to the presidency.
For some of us who share similar Coastal roots, we can actually fantasize the idea of having a Coastal residing in the State House. In the USA, similar thoughts are blowing off the minds of black Americans and women who are salivating on the possibility of a historical representation in the White House via Senators Barrack Obama and/or Hillary Clinton in the 2008 general elections.
As insignificant as we may believe Balala candidacy is, we must remember that this former mayor and cabinet minister possess special characteristics that make him a unique and very sensible option for the other more influential politicians. He is more valuable now than before the ODM-K London fiasco that left a major blot on the party. He is ethnically neutral, non-affiliated to any of the Kenya’s big tribes, or a religion with large following in Kenya, or Mafia-like corrupt personalities. He is likable, tested and can bring people together through his clear vision for Kenya.
Therefore, through a process of “wild-card” calculations, Balala may the best hope for ODM-K. As it stands neither Raila nor Kalonzo can repair the damage they have caused in their individual candidacies. Or, rummage the influence of the party they formed to unseat Mwai Kibaki. For this reason, they need a new strategy of coming back to the limelight not through the obvious front door—but through a third candidate of compromise.
OK, I know you think I am not only re-introducing the American notion of “wild-card,” but I am subsequently making wild statements about the persuasive ideas for Balala’s candidacy. Balala will become a compromise candidate because ODM’s star-candidates in the name of Hon. Raila Odinga and Hon. Kalonzo Musyoka have dangerously and publicly locked horns and totally screwed up their chances of beating President Mwai Kibaki. Apparently, if any of the two ascends into winning the ODM-K ticket, then the other will run away with his bruised ego and thus votes. Obviously, such divisions will result in heavy losses for ODM-K in the general elections. This will happen regardless of a pre-election treaty or MoU that they will device.
Make no mistakes, the division we see in the ODM-K between Raila and Kalonzo is permanent and will never heal. Therefore, from the short walk one of them may have taken to the State House this December, there seem to be a big gap that may be filled by a Balala candidacy given the right strategy. If by now you were expecting me to mention Musalia Mudavadi as another influential solution, you may want to consider that his close proximity, geographical and cultural of Mr. Odinga’s sphere of influence will play negatively for Musyoka’s acceptance of Musalia’s candidature. Therefore Balala remains an important key to merging the potential energies of Raila and Kalonzo in a productive winning ticket for the 2007 elections.
It is also clear that Hon. Balala has critical sets of characteristics that make him special and a very potent conciliatory candidate. He is from a minority angle in all sense of the word minority. Being a “brown” Muslim from Mvita constituency and belonging to an ethnic group whose numbers do not threaten any other candidate. Balala is amply experienced and his vision is by all means “Tosha” for the future Kenya. Besides, in every campaign there lies a potent force that can only be mainstreamed if a certain unity can be forged. Without analyzing what made NARC successful in 2002, it is an important lesson to believe that a new paradigm is needed for ODM-K to succeed this year.
Raila and Kalonzo must come to their sense and use their big voices to pull in the critical vote required to elevate Balala to an indomitable candidate. On the one hand, Balala success may be totally dependent on a wild situation like this. But, on the other hand Raila’s and Kalonzo’s leadership can only benefit Kenya if they both step-out and support a third person—such as as Balala. That is Balala’s success as well as all other candidates is totally dependant on the sacrifice of all the party leaders; especially after the aborted London truce meeting.
I am Coastal; I am a brown Muslim originating only 40 miles from Balala himself. Therefore, I am slightly biased in my analysis when I say that the Coastal natives are a trustworthy group of people. If there are any worries about a winner who will not honor a Memorandum of Understanding or who will seek second-term re-election despite assuring others that he will be a single term president, Balala is not that kind of a personality. Additionally, Balala is not surrounded by bad influence such as the Mt. Kenya Mafia. And, it is critical that once someone takes the highest seat on the land s/he does not surround self with MEGA, GEMA, or any of those big suffocating tribal dominating organs. This man has no threatening tribal members who will take the government like the way this government has been hijacked by the Mt. Kenya cartel of corrupted leaders in all the major ministries and parastals. If there is a neutral candidate in this whole contest, Balala is that candidate because his ethnic group is almost non-existent in Kenya.
Last but not least, candidate Balala is very real because he will revive the powerful campaign momentum of the ODM-K. Balala candidature will bring the votes from the Nyanza, Western and the Eastern through Raila, Musalia, and Kalonzo. His Muslim affiliations will lock North Eastern Province and the Coast. In turn, a properly cultivated Uhuru Kenyatta vice-presidency may steal the votes from Central and there will be a sweet landslide for ODM-K in 2007. It will only require the sensibility of the Raila-Kalonzo impasse to envision a modern Kenya of hope and sanity through a candidate of promise; and Balala is your man.
Author: Abdillahi Alawy, PhD
Aalawy@gmail.com
Aalawy@gmail.com
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