KenyaPolitico: 2012 race is reality we cannot ignore

Commentary & Analysis

Story by: OMAR ALI

To avoid the succession talk as is being advised by various political leaders is like denying prostitution exists, say in the United States. Whether one wants to acknowledge or not, the race for the 2012 General Election started as soon as the Grand Coalition Government was put in place.

Like in many other democracies, political campaigns are constant processes that never end. It is some sort of vicious circle, when one ends another starts immediately. As would be expected, the next presidential race will most likely pit Orange Democratic Movement Prime Minister Raila Odinga against Party of National Unity/Orange Democratic Movement of Kenya alliance’s choice, who will most likely be Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka.

The only person who could seriously threaten the V-P from clinching the alliance’s presidential ticket is Interanal Security Minsiter, Prof George Saitoti. Although the media keeps on mentioning Martha Karua and Uhuru Kenyatta as possible serious contenders for the 2012 State House race, the fact of the matter is that they have no prayer.

This is just the media’s wishful thinking. While it looks excellent for the two Central province’s legislators’ public relations campaign to have them floated as serious presidential contenders, in reality the duo are well aware that another Central province politician to elected to the presidency will take years.
Uhuru had his chance when he had the backing of the then President, Daniel arap Moi’s full Government machinery and Kanu backing and failed to be elected to the highest office.

Uhuru and Karua, do not have a national constituency to speak of or write home about. Other than the backing of their populous Kikuyu and to a large extent Mount Kenya communities’ bloc, the party Uhuru continues to lead, Kanu, is not the same as it used to be nor is it the same as people used to recognize it in the days of his father and Moi.

For one, the party failed to secure a single parliamentary seat in the expansive Rift Valley, a region once considered the party’s bedrock. History tell us that the Kikuyu and or Mt Kenya bloc votes cannot single handedly win the presidency —President Mwai Kibaki’s second try for the presidency in 1997 received the entire Mt Kenya/Kikuyu bloc votes but was unable to unseat Moi.
As for Karua, although considered one of the toughest and non-nonsense Ministers and an able lawyer to boot, she has no national brand appeal to succeed in the run for the presidency. Although she has many admirers, she comes out as a very arrogant individual who knows it all and is elitist. The ODM machine backing Raila would want to come back in 2012 with a bang like a basketball team playing in a home court crowd after coming from a controversial loss. Unlike PNU alliance ODM would probably not conduct nomination exercise, as a respect to Raila. It is hard to think that there would be any politician who would dare come out to seek the party ticket.
President Kibak’s allied and friendly parties can ignore the Energy Minister Kiraitu Murungi suggestion, that their bus needs a good driver, at their own peril. As suggested by Murungi, the best driver for their bus is none other than Kalonzo, who stands to be the ace card with the best chance to unite all President Mwai Kibaki’s friendly and allied political parties. Murungi was right on point when he started the Kibaki succession process and by suggesting that the Kibaki allied faction of the Grand Coalition Government rally behind Kalonzo.

Unless Kibaki literally hands over the presidency to a fellow Kikuyu before the expiry of his tenure, which is highly unlikely, the next president of Kenya is likely not going to hail from the Kikuyu community notwithstanding the community’s numerical strength. Boldly speaking, the best bet for the PNU alliance presidential candidate is Kalonzo.

Adeniji response to Wetangula baffling

By entering into a war of words with our Foreign Affairs minister Moses Wetangula, the Chief Mediator Prof Oluyemi Adeniji, clearly seems to be an unsuitable person to head the mediation talks task, his multilateral diplomacy experience notwithstanding. Certainly, many people are now wondering what kind of a diplomat Prof Adeniji is.

This is not defending or agreeing with Wetangula when he suggested that the Eminent African Personalities team should leave the country, but even if we assume that the Sirisia MP erred in giving the controversial suggestion, certainly it should not have triggered Adeniji to call a press conference to start a war of words with the local politicians. In response to our Foreign Minister’s remarks, Adeniji, a one time Nigerian Foreign minister himself, was quoted by the press to have noted: “I’m not a refugee. I haven’t come to Kenya to seek political asylum, nor am I an economic refugee.
In fact, I have another job waiting for me…. we have homes to go.” Why is it that Wetangula remarks triggered Oluyemi to be so bitter and took the remarks very personal? Those were definitely not the words to be uttered by a respected diplomat, who is supposedly going to assist in the healing process through meditation talks. Surprisingly, the Nigerian is behaving as if he is a Kenyan politician sympathetic to one side of the political divide.

I say so because Wetangula couldn’t have been straight forward in his suggestion to the members of the Eminent African Personalities team. He simply told them they should leave the country since they had finished their work. He went on to add that Prof Adeniji and members of the Eminent African Personalities team had finished their brief and should leave. And that the team should let Kenyans handle the remaining portion of the brokered deal.

To be fair to Wetangula even if one doesn’t agree with his suggestion, where in the world did Wetangula mention anything close to “political asylum, economic refugee or lack of homes on the part of the Eminent Persons and to Chief Adeniji in particular?” Perhaps, the Nigerian needs to come clean why he took the matter very personal as if Wetangula was attacking him personally as opposed to the “institution.” It has since emerged that the mediation talks would be on a need basis and not on daily basis.

Hence, Adeniji could pack and go to the job he claimed was waiting for him in Nigeria or elsewhere.

Amnesty calls misplaced

here have been amnesty calls for the post-election violence perpetrators by a section of the ODM faction of the ruling Grand Coalition Government. While addressing the ODM joint NEC and PG caucus Prime Minister Raila Odinga noted: “I wish to state that support for the Grand Coalition Government must not be based on blind faith or coercion.

That is why I have supported calls for the release of all Kenyans who were arrested during the post-election conflict merely for peacefully demonstrating their opposition to the fraudulent Electoral Commission of Kenya’s declaration of presidential results.” The rhetoric statement will continue to earn the ODM strongman political support but is sending wrong signals to future political hooliganism.

The call for blanket amnesty to executors of the post-election violence (under police arrest) by a section of ODM led by Raila is a disingenuous one and it sends wrong signals to political thuggery in the country. Those arrested were not merely demonstrating to express their anger on a fraudulent election as ODM leadership would like the public to believe. Instead these individuals committed serious crimes like murder, rape, arson and robbery with violence. Just like they did not feel any mercy for their victims, the law should not show any mercy or leniency whatsoever.

Lest we quickly forget, more than 1,000 innocent lives were lost, more than 350,000 Kenyans were displaced and they continue to remain refugees in their own country and property worth over Sh 30 billion destroyed. This is not the work of what the PM referred to as those in custody were “merely for peacefully demonstrating their opposition to the fraudulent Electoral Commission of Kenya’s declaration of presidential results”.

These people committed heinous crimes.The law must follow its rightful course and the perpetrators should not be pardoned.