The big duel that never was

By Dr. ABDILLAHI Alawy

The heavy rains that pounded Magarini and the surrounding villages during the by-election day have a standard interpretation as far as Hollywood cinema is concerned. Such signs could mean that the election was bringing some difficult changes in the constituency and the country. Yet, the same rains may be translated in the Mijikenda context that there will be major blessings in the Giriama landscapes.

The by-election in Magarini Constituency and 14 civic wards in the country provided a convenient and timely platform for the two political parties to rehearse their strength before this year’s General Election. From Gongoni, Kenya to Washington DC and many other places in between, the election was largely seen as a contest between Narc-K and ODM-K. Fists were raised and threats issued at every level but in the end the winner, Harrison Kombe, took it all. I agree that as far as this election was concerned, whether in Kenya, 2007 or America, 2008, that we have not seen anything yet!

You ain’t seen nothing yet! A common naughty phrase that is grammatically unbalanced but quite popular during elections times. Accompanying terminologies include “you will see” and the Swahili interpretation of “Mambo bado!” Such are the exchanges vastly gaining currency in the streets of Nairobi, in the capitol bars of Washington DC and many other politically addictive places.

In the Giriama Coast, mambo bado was mainly used in the context of another bigger election that is coming in seven months. Yeah, Kombe has seven months’ salary to enjoy before returning to the villages. Only this time all his suited supporters will be busy bribing in their own villages seeking re-election. In America, the same is implied when we take a serious glance at the pool of candidates in the two major parties here…not necessarily the bribing but the uncertainty of what elections can bring in terms of animosity and bad blood.
Of no big surprise is the realization that you only need four thousands votes to win the Magarini parliamentary seat. A rural competition that brought to earth all the millionaire Kenyan presidential candidates and cabinet ministers into the cashew bushes of the Giriama villages. Indeed these are very intense political times and the fever is high not only in Magarini but also in Washington DC.

You ain’t seen nothing yet because Washington is abuzz with news about Senators Barrack Obama or Hillary Clinton as the next president of this country. Yet, it is a known fact that senators never become presidents—at least in recent elections. From the days of Jimmy Carter to George W Bush all senatorial presidential contestants failed badly.
Former governors such as Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, or George W Bush all moved from governorships to presidency. Senators Bob Dole, Jon Kerry and many before them did not win the presidency. Will these two senators, Hillary and Obama, dislodge that jinx and capture the White House? Particularly for these two, everything will be a novelty for them given that we have never had before a woman president or a black head of state in these United States.
Back to Kenya, Kenyans in the whole Diaspora have digested the news of the Magarini by-election whose results have confirmed the power of state resources used for political campaigning. Here and there they call it the power of incumbency. Title deeds, cash, a few pieces of kanga, sugar, floor and a promise to legalize their local brew can entice any voter, anywhere, anytime. Even after this show of Government’s muscle, ODM-K came around and threatened: you ain’t seen nothing yet! What, another Four-year petition for the remaining Seven months on the seat? We may have concluded in Kenya who the opposing presidential candidates are going to be come this December. You think that you know it until the Artur’s book is released and we see who the less corrupt candidates are --as if that matters in Kenya.
Yet, the big surprise for presidential candidates may not happening in Kenya but here in the USA. This beats all what you have heard before; the two candidates for the final presidential elections in the US have not even announced their bids yet. And, that is when I tell you that you ain’t seen nothing yet!

That Al Gore is releasing a brand new book, Assault on Reason, and his previous success with the documentary movie, An Inconvenient Truth, is but a curtain raiser for his announcement soon. I am learning that Al Gore will actually run for the presidency in 2008 and he is likely to pick Senator Obama as his running mate. This last line (VP Obama) is my prediction.
This former US vice president who won the popular vote in 2000 has openly encouraged rumors that he is running for president in 2008. Speaking with Time magazine this week, Al Gore said the following: “I haven’t ruled it out. But I don’t think it’s likely to happen.” And, that is why many observers here claim that the 2008 elections have not started yet. There is more in the works and Al Gore is not even the only surprise.
On the Republican Party (GOP) side, their pool of candidates is not as exciting compared to the star-studded Democrats that showcase a rock-star cast of Barrack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Bill Richardson. The Republicans are stuck with Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and several other unknowns. Each one of the GOP candidates has major problem concerning key campaign issues such as abortion, the right religion for candidate, and simply, the general problem of eroded charisma for all of them.
But this may soon change because another New York mayor will join the race very soon. Michael Bloomberg is the second term mayor of America’s largest city, New York, New York. He has money, name recognition and a plan. At least, it has been confirmed that Mayor Bloomberg is not interested in becoming governor of New York. Although New York governorship is seen as a logical place to go after successfully serving New York City, Bloomberg has decided to leave the governor’s mansion to Eliot Spitzer, the current governor of the state.

Therefore, here we are not only speculating on the entry of Al Gore but an even bigger Republican factor is looming over this election. And because of the above problems with the GOP candidates, Bloomberg sees an opportunity to jump in probably via a third party. Privately he has revealed that he could spend upwards of $500 million or more to finance an independent, third-party presidential campaign. If anybody can afford that much money from the New York City Hall, it is Bloomberg. Obama was not mentioned as a likely running mate here but you never know. Thank God Hon Harrison Kombe has job security for the next seven busy months!

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