Saturday, March 8, 2008

Raila’s maths on ODM’s Cabinet



Prime Minister-Designate Odinga
After the enactment of all the relevant laws that will put in place the grand coalition and the establishment of the posts of Prime Minister and two deputy premiers, it will be interesting to see which individuals from Orange Democratic Movement under the leadership of Prime Minister-Designate Raila Odinga are picked as his cabinet appointments.

Perhaps, except for one the former Gachoka MP Joe Nyaga, it is more than likely that the party’s Pentagon members will all make it to the cabinet. In addition it is believed that even the party’s Deputy Prime Minister will also come amongst the Pentagon members. Nobody knows the exact total number of cabinet dockets President Mwai Kibaki and Raila will agree to have in their new look grand coalition government.
But it cannot be more than thirty four members. If it exceeds that, then Kenyans will come to the realization that all what ODM wanted was power, power and power.
All those party reform slogans on good governance, anti-corruption, lean cabinet and champions of the poor Kenyans and the disfranchised was only a way of achieving their self-centred goals. The tough part will be which names Raila will put forward to formulate the rest of his cabinet, after he has settled the matters with his Pentagon team. Other ODM legislators likely to make it to the Cabinet are the party’s Secretary-General, national chairman and national treasurer, Peter Anyan’g Nyong’o, Henry Kosgey and Omingo Magara respectively.

The only Pentagon member, Nyagah, who the party has nominated to the National Assembly, might be the only Pentagon member not making the Cabinet. The former Gachoka MP might settle for an assistant ministerial position or agree to a good possible option and become a chairman of one of the several Parliamentary Select Committees that ODM and PNU will jointly hold.

Let us assume that the prime minister-designate has to name seventeen members since the president did the same when he named his partial cabinet. With the three national officials and the four pentagon members (excluding Nyagah) this brings that number to seven. The Lang’ata MP will remain with ten slots and it will be telling how wisely he will distribute these, while taking into consideration gender, religious, tribal and regional balance.

Once the dust settles the Coastal people and separately the Muslim community will see what I have always been telling them in my commentaries, that ODM win is only a win for the Mvita MP. I see only Balala to be the lone and sole beneficiary of this win. I would love to be proven wrong. The Coast voters and separately the Muslim community need to keenly watch and see who else apart from Balala is selected for a full cabinet slot and what dockets will they (if any) be handed to manage.

When it comes to the Coast people, President Kibaki has already appointed two MPs from the region in his seventeen member cabinet –Transport Minister Chirau Mwakwere and Office of the President Minister for Special Programmes Minister Dr Mrs Naomi Shabaan. One could be tempted to ask, why use the Coast as a barometer in gauging Raila.

It is pretty simple. Out of the seaside province’s twenty one parliamentary seats, the president’s PNU and all its affiliates including ODM Kenya managed to secure eight seats, and yet Kibaki gave the province two cabinet posts out of the eight parliamentarians. Raila’s ODM and one of its silent affiliates, Ganze MP Francis Baya-led KADU-Asili took the remaining thirteen seats. That is the math. Wapwani should wait and see what happens.

I should add that KADU-Asili is the first ODM causality as the party’s affiliation with ODM has since been disowned by Prof Nyon’go who gave a press statement naming all ODM affiliates and did not include KADU-Asili. The Muslim community which in many instances is very much intertwined with the Coast issue has already been recognized by Kibaki in his appointment of three members to his Cabinet, namely, Mwakwere, Shabaan and the Ijara MP Mohamed Yussuf Haji, who was appointed to head the Office of the President for Defence docket.
These are not imaginations but political realities. One could argue that two of the six Nominated MP slots of ODM were given to the Muslims because of ODM leadership honouring its MoU with the Muslims. My answer here is very simple; ODM gave two slots to the Muslims because of the signed MoU, while Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka-led ODM Kenya gave the Muslims the same number of MPs where there was no MoU of any kind in place. Indigenous coastal people, and separately the Muslims ought to listen and to listen well.

I speak boldly that if none of the two major parties - ODM or PNU does not pick a Muslim for one the two DPM posts, Muslims ought to evaluate their political support for both the parties in future elections.
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Story by Omar Ali
SUNDAY TIMES

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